Early New Hampshire results suggest that the race in the nation’s first primary is even tighter than in Iowa. Jeb Bush leads all likely candidates with 15% of the vote, but Walker (11%) and Paul (10%) are both within five points of the lead. Christie (9%) and Huckabee (6%) round out the state’s top five finishers. These results closely mirror those from the WMUR poll from January 22nd through February 3rd, which showed Bush leading with 17%, Walker in second with 12%, and Paul, Christie, and Huckabee all tied with 9%.
A closer look at the underlying numbers suggests that the top candidates each have slightly differing bases of support. Among self-identified strong Republicans, Walker is the top pick with 17% of the vote. Jeb Bush is the clear leader among weak Republicans, collecting 22% of their support, followed by 11% for Chris Christie. And the libertarian-leaning Paul finds his strongest support among Independents, where he and Bush each collect 13% of the vote.